Can Beholder Get the Job Done in Classic?

In general, a filly must be a genuinely freakish mass of equine sinews to physically challenge elite male competition at the demanding classic distance of a mile and a quarter. In 2011, Havre de Grace, whose connections were doubtlessly buoyed by Zenyatta's victory and subsequent runner-up performance in 2010, could finish no better than fourth against a mediocre Breeders' Cup Classic field. Still, the "filly taking on the boys" storyline never seems to grow old as Beholder will play 2015's version of the damsel. 

Speed in the eyes of the Beholder

As with any horse race, the primary question of Beholder's chances has to do with innate ability. Is she fast enough to win? Her dazzling Pacific Classic effort - which was also her lone start against the boys - answers that question with a resounding yes. While destroying the competition by 8 1/4 lengths, Beholder earned a 114 Beyer number - faster than any number earned by any runner, at any distance this year. That number, while impressive, is also a statistical anomaly. Outside of the Pacific Classic, Beholder's career Beyer figures have rarely eclipsed 100 - with low to mid 90's Beyers comprising the bulk of her work. 

Saving her best for the best

Looking at Beholder purely from a Beyer Speed perspective, though, fails to acknowledge the pure competitive nature of the horse. When facing her best competition, she put forth her best effort. She also clearly seems to be peaking at the right time. The news of Beholder's slight fever upon arriving at Keeneland October 20 is cause for concern as is the fact that she's 0 for 2 in her only two tries outside California. It will take a Herculean effort for Beholder to match Zenyatta's rare feat, but this filly has shown enough to make her one of the top three favorites when the gates open in Lexington on Halloween night.