Kentucky Derby Focus: What to Make of Exaggerator?

On the positive side, Exaggerator's final prep was easily the most impressive of any of the Kentucky Derby contender's last race - or any race. The 103 Beyer Speed Figure he earned while winning the Santa Anita Derby was nine points faster than the next closest figure (Nyquist's 94 in the Florida Derby). The performance was also visually impressive as the son of Curlin was at least 15 lengths off the pace before unleashing a jaw-dropping move around the three-eighths pole to inhale the front-runners at the head of the stretch. Of course, it must be noted that the sloppy conditions of the Santa Anita track clearly suited him, while his rivals did little more than spin their wheels.

Sloppy track sensation?

Is Exaggerator a sloppy-track sensation, or does his Santa Anita Derby performance simply signal an improving colt stepping up his game at exactly the right time? In the  Keith Desormeaux trainee's dry track performances this year, he finished second in Grade 2 San Vicente at seven furlongs, checking in behind a fast performance from Nyquist, and ran third in the Grade 2 San Felipe after flattening out in the stretch. Exaggerator clearly doesn't need a sloppy track to be an effective horse, but his two biggest career triumphs have been on the off-going with the other occurring in the Delta Jackpot Stakes a as a juvenile.

Can't play against 

Exaggerator will surely be another horse to keep tabs on as he makes his final preparations for the Kentucky Derby. Possessing a quick turn of foot, a suitable running style, and a pedigree that suggests a mile and a quarter won't be a problem, there's no valid reason to think the intriguing colt won't run a big race in the Kentucky Derby - particularly if the forecast calls for rain in Louisville.